It is generally accepted that our future, post-covid, will be different than our past. To respond strategically to the current environment, companies first need to understand the landscape.  What are the forces that will shape the terrain as we move ahead?  Here are five major factors that will influence our future.

Accelerating Digitalization

This trend has been increasing for some time, but the pace is now lightening fast.  For 2020, while retail sales are projected to decline 10.5% overall, on line purchases should see an increase of 14.5%.  And services – from telemedicine to first run movies – are delivered on line with increasing frequency. 

By and large, there will be increasing demand for shared digital experiences and communities.  A premium will be available for companies that are able to provide alternatives to in-person experiences in a post-COVID world.

Workforce Transformation

The digital trend has already altered the workforce.  Work from Home is more common – and more acceptable and desirable.  While only 37% of workers expressed willingness to work from home prior to covid, that number is now 87%.  But jobs that cannot be performed remotely are vulnerable – and most of these are low wage jobs.

Some workers may be reluctant to return to the work force due to health concerns.  And some employers may not want them back due to liability.  To the extent that this disproportionately impacts older, more experienced workers, some businesses may be at risk of sudden loss of significant talent, experience, and institutional knowledge. 

Reduction of In Person Interaction

Reduced in person contacts have both negative and positive impacts.  On the negative side, there is an obvious impact on the opportunities to build relationships during casual, in-person encounters, whether in the hallway, at the coffee pot, or over lunch.  Meetings or negotiations that rely on trust building or visual cues are impacted, as are opportunities – formal and informal – for training and mentoring.  But the greatest negative impact may be on the ability to have sensitive or difficult conversations concerning issues such as performance, or simply to provide emotional support to an employee or colleague going through a difficult time.

On the other hand, we can also benefit from the decoupling of location and tasks, and offer greater flexibility for certain workers.  With more tasks and work being performed digitally, we have the opportunity (indeed the necessity) to design processes that diminish our reliance on paper.  And critically, we can collectively decrease our environmental impact by reduced commuting, reduced travel, and condensed space requirements.

Regulatory Uncertainty

Businesses always seem to face a good deal of regulatory uncertainty, but that uncertainty will be exacerbated moving forward.  There has been a huge government intervention at the federal level that has provided support to some areas of the economy.  But we really don’t know the efficacy of this intervention, nor do we know whether more is in the offing.  In addition, state governments are facing budget crises that will no doubt be impactful on businesses and individuals.

These circumstances introduce a higher level of complexity concerning finance, consumer behavior, and pricing power – which may or may not induce further government action.

The Unpredictable Course of the Virus

The unfortunate truth is that none of us know the future course of the virus and the pandemic.  The extent to which we have the resources or collective will to contain the spread is unknown.  While there is some encouraging news about therapeutics and vaccines, the extent to which these will confer immunity and for how long is a mystery – as is the cost, both human and financial. 

Worst of all, for our health, our economy – and our collective mental state – there is little clarity on when or how these issues will be resolved.

To survive and thrive in the Next Normal, businesses will need to come to grips with these five forces and develop strategies to succeed in the new landscape. 

Marc Alterman is the principal of MA33 Strategies, LLC, a consultancy dedicated to providing strategic planning and general business advice to entrepreneurs and executives. For help with you company’s overall strategic direction or other management challenges, contact Marc Alterman at [email protected].